According to @simplykashif, Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor states the typical 4-year Bitcoin cycle has shifted to a 5-year cycle due to changes in U.S. debt dynamics, placing BTC’s cycle peak in Q2 2026 (source: @simplykashif on X, Dec 2, 2025). According to @simplykashif, this revised timeline anchors a later potential top for cycle-based traders to map into mid-2026, with the macro driver explicitly cited as U.S. debt changes by Raoul Pal (source: @simplykashif on X, Dec 2, 2025).

According to @AltcoinDaily, Raoul Pal stated that the Bitcoin market cycle has shifted from four years to five years, with a projected BTC peak in Q2 2026, source: @AltcoinDaily, Oct 21, 2025 on X. This timeline suggests traders using halving-based models may need to extend cycle expectations, adjust position sizing, and plan exits closer to mid-2026, source: @AltcoinDaily, Oct 21, 2025 on X. The claim implies a longer runway for momentum and liquidity rotation across BTC and majors before a cycle top, which is relevant for timing risk management and profit-taking plans, source: @AltcoinDaily, Oct 21, 2025 on X.